Research Article
Predicting Therapeutic Results of Interferon Based Treatment by Modeling the First Week Viral Kinetics in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C
Chun-Hsiang Wang*, Ruey-Chang Lin, Lein-Ray Mo, Kuo-Kuan Chang and Jen-Juan KuoDepartment of Hepatogastroenterology, Tainan Municipal Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan
- *Corresponding Author:
- Chun-Hsiang Wang, M.D
Department of Hepatogastroenterology
Tainan Municipal Hospital
Address: 670, Chongde Road, Tainan, Taiwan
Tel: 886-6-2609926
Fax: 886-6-2606351
E-mail: chunhsiangwang1@gmail.com
Received date: March 07, 2015; Accepted date: March 18, 2015; Published date: March 27, 2015
Citation: Wang CH, Lin RC, Mo LR, Chang KK, Kuo JJ (2015) Predicting Therapeutic Results of Interferon Based Treatment by Modeling the First Week Viral Kinetics in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C. J Gastrointest Dig Syst 5:270. doi:10.4172/2161-069X.1000270
Copyright: © 2015 Wang CH, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Abstract
Background: The present study aimed to develop an optimal model predictive of the treatment response one week after initiating antiviral therapy.
Patients and Methods: In all, 166 patients completed the treatment and were followed up for six months.
Results: A viral response was achieved in 14 (8.4%) genotype 1 (G1) and 32 (19.3%) non-genotype 1 (G0) patients at week one after initiation of therapy and 45 (27.1%) G1 and 90 (54.2%) G0 patients at week four. A sustained viral response (SVR) was achieved in 50 (30.1%) G1 and 83 (50.0%) G0 patients, in 13 (29.5%) G1 and 31 (70.5%) G0 patients whose antiviral response was achieved at one week, and in 37 G1 (32.2%) and 78 G0 (67.8%) patients whose antiviral response was achieved at four weeks. The HCV viral kinetic parameter π (i.e., 1: α, α was defined as the area under the line y [viral load]=– a[x{time}] between week 0 and week 1) was found to be the best performing test for predicting SVR (p<0.0001). Regression analysis identified π as the only independent predictor of SVR (p=0.043).
Conclusions: The use of bio-mathematical models of HCV kinetics can reliably predict SVR one week after starting therapy.
