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Abstract

It is well known that evaluation of parameters for any mathematical model is always a difficult problem. This is especially true for agents-based models (ABMs) because an evaluation of agent�s parameters can be made only based on available information from a higher level of a complex system. Because information at a higher level is an aggregation of data at the agents level such problems can be ill-posed ones. It means a problem under consideration can have a non-unique or unique but unstable solution. In the latter case, numerical solution of the problem has to be based on very special algorithms. In this talk, I am going to overview problems that arise for ABMs with different numbers of emergent patterns. In particular, I am going to tell about new approach to creation of the ABM for an influenza epidemic spreading in cities. The proposed ABM can be used for past epidemics to estimate the efficiency or inefficiency of undertaken interventions, to propose new ones and to reveal its advantages, shortcomings and cost. This ABM is the first one that under some conditions can be used to model the possible dynamics of coming epidemics or pandemics.

Biography

Email: vdperm@yandex.ru