Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change
黑料网
Our Group organises 3000+ Global Events every year across USA, Europe & Asia with support from 1000 more scientific Societies and Publishes 700+ 黑料网 Journals which contains over 50000 eminent personalities, reputed scientists as editorial board members.
黑料网 Journals gaining more Readers and Citations
700 Journals and 15,000,000 Readers Each Journal is getting 25,000+ Readers
Citations : 5125
Indexed In
- CAS Source Index (CASSI)
- Index Copernicus
- Google Scholar
- Sherpa Romeo
- Online Access to Research in the Environment (OARE)
- Open J Gate
- Genamics JournalSeek
- JournalTOCs
- Ulrich's Periodicals Directory
- Access to Global Online Research in Agriculture (AGORA)
- Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI)
- RefSeek
- Hamdard University
- EBSCO A-Z
- OCLC- WorldCat
- Proquest Summons
- SWB online catalog
- Publons
- Euro Pub
- ICMJE
Useful Links
Recommended Journals
Related Subjects
Share This Page
In Association with
4.5 to 7.8�?掳C global surface warming from today′s CO2 and CH4 levels
World Conference on Climate Change
Gene Fry
Energy Efficiency & Global Warming Consultant, USA
Keynote: J Earth Sci Clim Change
DOI:
Abstract
Earth芒�?�?s surface will warm, due just to today芒�?�?s 400 ppm CO2 and 1840 ppb CH4, by 2-8 x as much as it has since 1880. Already, land surfaces have warmed 1.0 �?掳C (5-year mean) over the last 50 years and 1.5 �?掳C over the last 130. Sea surfaces have warmed 1.0 �?掳C over the past 100. Meanwhile, ocean depths add more heat every 2 years than all the energy humans have ever used. Vostok ice core data analysis connects today芒�?�?s CO2 levels with 7.4 �?掳C surface warming there, compared to the 1951-1980 mean. Using a 50% polar to global �?�?�?掳C conversion, using NASA observations since 1880, the �?�? 3.7 �?掳C result is highly consistent with CO2 and �?�?�?掳C data from 4 and 14 million years ago. Adding Vostok CH4 data to the analysis connects today芒�?�?s CH4 and CO2 levels with 6.5 �?掳C global surface warming above baseline. �?�? 3.7 �?掳C globally (more inland and poleward) is enough to make Kansas, 芒�?�?breadbasket of the world芒�?聺, as hot as Las Vegas. The analysis suggests major lag effects to come, mostly from albedo changes. Some major albedo changes come this century, from disappearing Arctic sea ice and anthropogenic sulfates, plus receding snow cover. Albedo effects from ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica happen more slowly. When Earth last had 400 ppm CO2, sea levels were estimated at 20-35 meters above today芒�?�?s, indicating up to 50% ice loss eventually. The loss rate is only 1/4 that during the recent ice ages, but still 6-7 meters/�?掳C.Biography
Gene Fry completed his PhD in Resource Economics from Cornell University in 1989. He was Director of Policy and Planning for the Maine Energy Office, then Economist in the Electric Power Division of the Massachusetts Utility Commission for 13 years. After stints as contributing Editor for climate change issues at the Global Environmental Change Report and Business and the Environment, he managed energy efficiency program evaluations for Northeast Utilities for 3 years, until he retired in 2011. He has published 2 articles in refereed journals.
Email: gene.fry@rcn.com
