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Abstract

The current rates of change in physical variables may exceed the tolerance thresholds of many marines organisms, and they are predicted to accelerate over the next several decades. Therefore, the assessment of these changes over these valuable resources is necessary in order to manage them properly. To accomplish this objective the projection of key physical and chemical variables for the ecosystem functioning is needed. With this aim, a database of projected met-oceanic variables was developed (e.g. sea surface temperature, salinity, wave height, nutrients). First, relevant variables for some engineering seagrasses and algae species in European coasts were selected. Data were obtained from the best sources available: Remote sensing, in situ measurements and reanalysis. The selection of descriptive parameters of each variable, representative both of average and extreme conditions, is a crucial step. To do that an objective procedure was applied. The selected parameters were projected under two different Representative Concentration Pathways, one optimistic and one pessimistic. Predictions were extracted from the best Global Climatic Models in the area, whose suitability for European coasts was previously assessed. This set of physical and chemical variables, consistent with species ecological requirements, can be used to create theoretical maps of the environmental conditions favouring or preventing the presence of key marine organisms. Therefore, they constitute a promising approach to be considered in the future regulatory framework.

Biography

Email: camino.fernandez@unican.es