黑料网

Abstract

Deterministic mathematical rainfall-runoff model CONSUL was used for simulation of discharges on 42 river sub-basins, their routing and composition on the main river and tributaries and passing through the reservoirs, according to the schematic representation of how water flows and collects in Crisul Alb river basin. For each sub-basin, average values of precipitation and air temperature determined based on the measured values, with 6 hours time step, from meteorological stations, were the input data requirements of CONSUL model. For calibration of model parameters, corresponding to the hydrometric stations located in the closing sections of river sub-basins, a number of 25 rainfall-runoff events from the period 1975-2010, covering a wide range of floods formation, ware used. The parameters, thus determined, allow getting some generalization relationships, according to the river sub-basins characteristics, used to estimation of the parameters for the uncontrolled sub-basins or river reaches. Based on the projected precipitation and air temperature resulted from the outputs of a statistical downscaling model on high spatial resolution (1 km x 1 km), the calibrated model allows hydrographs simulation for the future period (2021-2050). In order to estimate the effects of climate change on the hydrological extremes in the Crisul Alb River Basin, the results from two simulations were comparatively analyzed. Changes at the level of monthly and annual extreme discharges as well as at the level of instantaneous extreme discharges with different probabilities of excedance, using theoretical curves of probability are emphasized.

Biography

Email: rodica.mic@hidro.ro